In
this paper I will discuss one specific aspect of terrorism: attacks including
school buses as targets or weapons.
I will also focus on Islamist groups in my analysis. I will assume a basic knowledge of
terrorism and terrorist groups.
Thus I will not discuss in detail the motivations or specific tactical
movements of terrorists. I will be
dealing in strategies and methods that apply to anti-terrorism in a particular
area.
The
premise of this paper is the very real threat of another terrorist attack on
American soil carried out by a foreign terrorist group (or one with foreign
roots). This is not to deny or
ignore the existence of domestic terrorist organizations or the horror of their
actions – this study will in fact have implications for their attacks as
well. Not only are foreign
Islamist terrorists groups our current Òmain enemyÓ, they have also shown that
they know no boundaries in their attacks.
In an Institute for Counter-Terrorism paper, Monty Sagi writes:
ÒThe Beslan atrocity showed that there are no Òred
linesÓ
for
Islamic terror; it is limited only by what it is capable of
accomplishing,
not by normal civilized constraints or human
emotions.
If the means are available, no magnitude of
destruction
and death is Òtoo muchÓ to joyfully carry out."[1]
And
as Dr. Robert Friedmann, Director of the Georgia-Israel Law Enforcement
Exchange program (GILEE) has stated, ÒTo terrorists, schools are a very
attractive target.Ó
My decision to
focus on school buses is for two reasons: transportation is a preferred target
of terrorists worldwide, and an attack on a school-related target would strike
into the heart of America with unprecedented force. Recent congressional testimony has stated that 42% of
international terrorist incidents have focused on transportation systems as
targets[2],
and the FBI has stated that 40% of international mass transit attacks from 1920
to 2000 used buses as targets.[3] More specifically, a compilation of
terrorist incidents with schools as targets shows that about 37% of school
terrorist attacks have focused on buses as targets.[4] While neither of these numbers makes up
a solid majority of incidents, this is a large enough percentage for a single
target to warrant serious concern.
Buses are
preferred targets for a few reasons.
There is a high concentration of people in a small place, and high
numbers of pedestrians or people on nearby buses may also be caught in the
blast (as seen in the 7/7 bombings in London, where one device was set off as
two trains passed each other). In
addition, during the summer and winter windows are kept closed on buses to
maximize air conditioning or heat, and this also maximizes the blast effect.[5]
An article from the RAND Corporation describes the effect:
ÒAs a hail of shrapnel pierces flesh and breaks bones,
the shock wave tears lungs and crushes
other internal
organs. When the bus's fuel tank
explodes, a fireball
causes burns, and smoke inhalation
causes respiratory damage. All this is a significant return on a relatively
modest investment. Two or three
kilograms of explosive
on a bus can kill as many people as
twenty to thirty
kilograms left on a street or in a mall
or a restaurant.Ó[6]
Lastly, it is very difficult, because
of practicality and cost, to screen all passengers, as compared to screening
visitors to a building or event.
Buses are far less secure because of their mobility and predictability
– not only are buses exposed along miles and miles of routes with very
little possibility of complete security, but it is also possible for terrorists
to know their route in detail, since bus drivers are prided in
consistency. In Israel the
alertness of the public and improved screening techniques have led to a shift
in tactics, but America is still on her learning curve and has yet to adopt the
same level of preparedness for any type of terrorism as Israel.
While
the tactical reasons for bus attacks are strong, the strategic rewards are
possibly even stronger. Similar to
the image of the two towers of the World Trade Center, a school bus would
represent an unforgettable target to the parents of the 24 million school children
who ride to school each day. Just
like the image of the two towers brings back the memory of 9/11, after a school
bus attack every big yellow bus in America would remind us of the horror of the
incident. America is perhaps more
vulnerable to this not only because of our Òit canÕt happen hereÓ attitude, but
because of the use of standard school bus designs across the country, which
would lend even more to the power of imagery.
Outlining the Paradigm Shift
For
America, 9/11 signaled a shift to what is often referred to as Òthe new terrorismÓ
– something that had long occurred in other parts of the world but had
not yet been driven home in America.
The hijackings that had previously been characterized by negotiations
and tactical endings have been seemingly replaced by a combination of hostage
taking and suicide bombing.
Examples can be seen in the flights taken hostage and used as huge
suicide bombs on September 11th, 2001, as well as in the Beslan
school Ôhostage crisisÕ of September 1-3, 2005.
The Chechen terrorists were not
willing to negotiate. While their
true intentions can never be known, it seems that they only spoke with
authorities outside the school for the purpose of prolonging the incident as
long as possible and to make the Russian government look as helpless and
menacing as possible. After the
first day of the crisis, for example, a videocassette was tossed out of a
window to the assembled military perimeter. The footage showed the elaborate network of bombs connected
to foot pedal detonators that would set off explosions if the terrorist
controlling it moved his foot – a tactical nightmare for any team
planning on storming the school.
At no point during the crisis were
serious demands given, other than a desire to speak with President Putin. The other demands were too extreme to
be serious – for example demanding for a full Russian retreat from
Chechnya. While there is certainly
a real desire for this on the part of the Chechens, this served more as a
Òstump speechÓ than a demand likely to be met. While the terrorists further confused matters by wearing
masks – a sign of even the slightest chance of survival or escape –
they stated repeatedly to the hostages that they came to the school planning to
die.
Implications for America
John Giduck, a counter-terrorism expert
who traveled to Beslan and chronicled his first-person view of the attack in Terror
at Beslan, has stated that America needs to understand that in this type of
attack, people will die, and there will be no happy ending. In a nation where
we are relatively new to terrorism and accustomed to Òhappy endingsÓ, such an
attack would strike a heavy blow to America. While the Russian government can stonewall independent
inquiries and shift attention elsewhere, the anguish and frustration of a
no-win hostage situation with no feasible demands would bring America to its
knees.
The effect would be even more intense
than 9/11, because of the presumed safety & innocence of our children
combined with the high level of safety that we are accustomed to in the school
transportation industry. Out of
the approximately 800 children killed in motor vehicles during school travel
hours, only five of those are killed while a passenger on a school bus. School buses represent 25% of miles
traveled by students, but less than 2% of the fatalities.[7] With such a high success rate, anything
but perfection is not accepted by the parents of AmericaÕs school bus riders,
and a brutal terrorist attack as we have seen in other countries would have a
huge effect.
Examining the Threat
It is clear that schools are a
possible target for terrorists.
Aside from Beslan and the dozens of other school attacks over the past
37 years, it has been reported that the U.S. military has found information in
Iraq pertaining to U.S. schools, and in September 2004 the FBI notified school
districts in six states that photographs, diagrams, and emergency plans had
been found in the possession of unidentified individuals.[8] With institutions as large and prepared
as the Georgia Institute of Technology posting their entire emergency plans on
the internet, this is not surprising.
In addition, there have been hundreds
of thefts of school bus radios in two states, along with an increase in thefts
and vandalism of school buses and equipment across the U.S. This has obvious implications, including
but not limited to the possibility that unknown individuals may be able to
monitor or interfere with school bus communications, and even feed them false
and dangerous instructions during or before an attack.[9] At the very least, this would allow
terrorists to better understand and plan around the communications equipment of
an intended target.
It is also clear that our school
transportation systems are vulnerable to attack because of outdated equipment
and lack of training. There have
been countless incidents of violence and hostage taking on school buses across
the country, including one where a student used a sword to hijack a bus and
take it across state lines before he was stopped.
In another well-publicized incident, a
Miami Special Needs bus driver was fooled into taking her bus and students on a
75-minute ride by a hostage-taker who forced his way on the bus but did not
actually have a weapon. While she
was praised in the media and by the school bus industry for handling the
incident incredibly well, she apparently argued with and disobeyed the
hostage-taker repeatedly, and if there was an actual weapon involved students
may have been injured.[10] While we cannot judge her actions
without knowing all details of the situation, this type of approach would
clearly result in disaster if the attacker was an Islamist terrorist either
sent or influenced by a group such as Al Qaeda.
Mohamad El Zahabhi
The clearest
direct threat to the nationÕs school transportation system is the case of
Mohamad Kamal El Zahabhi, a Lebanese national who has worked at various times
as a Boston cab driver, a New York City auto mechanic, and a Minnesota school
bus driver for First Student, a private contracting firm that provides bus
service to schools across the country.
While it is not clear whether his service as a bus driver was just one
of many jobs that he held while in the U.S. or if it was part of an attempt to
gain access to a school bus, his history gives us concern.
He
first came to the U.S. in 1984, and paid a Texas woman to marry him so he could
obtain his green card. After
divorcing and admitting to fraud in 1988, he traveled to Afghanistan where he
attended a terrorist training camp and later served as a sniper in combat in
Afghanistan and Chechnya. He also
told FBI agents that he had served as an instructor at a jihadist school. During this time he allegedly met with
a few notable individuals, including Khalid Sheikh Muhammed, of 9/11 fame, and Abu
Musab al Zarqawi.
After
being injured in combat, el Zahabhi returned to New York City, where he worked
with a relative at Drive Axle Rebuilders, a business that he used to order and
ship to Afghanistan large quantities of heavy-duty field radios. While radios of the same type have been
found by U.S. troops in Afghanistan, he denies knowledge of the shipments,
saying that he never opened the packages that he was transferring. After serving as a cab driver in Boston
from 1997 to 1998, he traveled again to Chechnya to serve in combat.
Returning
to the U.S. in 2000, he moved to Minneapolis and on September 11, 2001 applied
for a job as a bus driver with First Student. He had previously obtained his CDL and a HazMat
certification under his Massachusetts driverÕs license, and passed an FBI
background check. The FBI declines
to comment as to why he was cleared, since the case is under
investigation. After starting as a
driver in late 2001, el Zahabhi failed to report to work after the winter break
and was fired in January 2001. He
returned in February 2001 and asked for his job back, but was denied.
While
his intentions are not clear, his ties to al Qaeda members and activities gives
rise to concern – for example the assistance he gave to Raed Hijazi, the
man convicted of the failed millennium bombing plot in Jordan, when he allowed
Hijazi to use his address in Massachusetts to receive mail and obtain a drivers
license. He is currently being
charged with lying to the FBI about this incident, along with other details.
Even
if el Zahabhi did not intend to assist with or carry out a school attack, the
fact that a jihadist combat veteran was able to become a bus driver in the U.S.
is a sign of severe security gaps.
National Response to the Threat
Federal
Level
The federal
government has responded to the threat of terrorism with policy and
publications intended for bus drivers.
The first move was to designate school buses as Òmass transportation
systemsÓ as part of H.R. 3162, the USA PATRIOT ACT. This extends federal jurisdiction and penalties to anyone
who wrecks, attacks, uses as a weapon, or otherwise endangers bus employees or
passengers. [11]
They
have also produced, through the Transportation Security Administration, the
ÒEmployee Guide to School Bus Security: Identifying Security ThreatsÓ along
with a quick reference card detailing awareness, identification of suspicious
behaviors or packages, and brief tips on how to respond to various
situations.
In
addition, the Department of Homeland Security has released three alerts
notifying school buses of heightened states of danger, and the United States
Department of Education released a letter to U.S. schools & buses after the
attack at Beslan, suggesting that employees look out for suspicious behavior,
and the letter outlines various methods of surveillance and planning that might
be observable to school staff or drivers.[12]
State
Level
There has been
a larger effort on the part of several states, but these actions are usually
disjointed and restricted to the state in which they are implemented. New Mexico, Minnesota, California, New
York and Iowa have all either released a training video or implemented a
training program for bus drivers on preventing and responding to
terrorism. Georgia, the state with
the largest state school safety center and the most comprehensive school bus
security training program, has conducted numerous training conferences for
drivers since the year 2000.[13]
Industry
It seems that the largest and most
concerted efforts have been on the part of the school bus industry. The three largest trade associations
(the National Association for Pupil Transportation (NAPT), the National
Association of State Directors of Pupil Transportation (NASDPT) and the
National School Transportation Association (NSTA)) have partnered with the
Department of Homeland SecurityÕs ÒHighway WatchÓ program to extend coverage
into a program called ÒSchool Bus Watch.Ó
Under the program, training is provided for drivers, who receive an
identification card and number that they can use to report suspicious behavior
to a national hotline, where information is passed on to local law
enforcement.
The NASDPT has released two position
papers indicating a heightened awareness of the threat and the need for a
response, recognizing that school bus drivers are the first line of defense
against a school transportation attack.
The National Conference on School Transportation has also discussed
creating a school bus equipment guide for first responders, detailing the
different types and designs of school buses and giving responding personnel a
way to know how to deal with, enter, immobilize and operate a bus if necessary.
Proposals
While much
progress has been made since 9/11, it is clear that efforts are currently too
thin and disjointed across the country.
While some states have prepared their drivers substantially, the federal
efforts have been too weak to have much effect. In addition, while industry efforts have been more
widespread and in depth, they lack the mandate that a state or federal law
might have. This leaves
preparation up to the individual states, districts, and even schools
themselves. As the Transportation
Research Board noted:
ÒSupervisors must set the example for compliance
with the
policies
and procedures and must make sure that employees
follow
suit. Supervisors must foster an environment that
promotes
awareness, preparedness, and due diligence by
adhering
to security policies and procedures daily.Ó[14]
In addition to
this lack of coverage and mandate, there has been a lot of focus on monitoring
for unauthorized surveillance or suspicious activity. While this is obviously a very important step to take,
schools may be too focused on this aspect, leading to a false sense of security
– since schools are doing so much, they may feel that they are doing
enough.
There is also
a lack of effective education for the general public. As Beslan has shown us, the lack of a secure perimeter
around an incident can hamper effective law enforcement response, and we have
even seen incidents in the U.S. where medical personnel have been forced to
park their ambulances miles from an incident because of the rush of parents and
well-wishers to the scene.
Education on procedures such as family reunification protocols needs to
be disseminated to the public more thoroughly.
While
there is a clear threat to American schools of terrorism, it is important to
remember that statistically the likelihood of an attack on a particular school
is very low, especially when compared to the very real occurrences of death and
injury that we know will occur every year in our schools. Schools should of course prepare for
terrorism, but with a balanced approach, using the federally endorsed ÒAll
HazardsÓ approach, which breaks planning down into four phases: Mitigation,
Prevention, Response and Recovery.[15] This type of approach deals with
terrorism like any other incident – not minimizing its importance but
placing it within the framework of current emergency response capabilities. This prevents the fragmentation of
planning and response and the frivolous waste of funds that we have often seen
in response to current events and threats that are on the forefront in the mind
of the public.
[1] Sagi, Monty, ÒTicking Bomb: Has the Countdown to Nuclear Terrorism Already Begun?Ó The Institute for Counter-Terrorism, September 11, 2004.
[2]ÒCongress,
Bush Administration Designate School Bus Service ÔMass TransportationÕÓ School
Transportation News, http://www.stnonline.com/stn/security/federal_actions/mass_system.htm
[3] Paul, Bill. ÒSecurity Onboard.Ó School Transportation News, April 2004.
[4] Dorn &
Dorn, Innocent Targets: When Terrorism Comes to School. Safe
Havens International, 2004.
[5] Falk,
Schwartz, Duvdevany & Galperin, ÒThe Suicide Attack Phenomenon.Ó The
Institute for Counter-Terrorism.
[6] Hoffman,
Bruce. ÒThe Logic of Suicide
Terrorism.Ó Reprinted from The Atlantic Monthly, June, 2003.
[7]
ÒThe Relative Risks of School Travel: A
National Perspective and Guidance for Local Community Risk AssessmentÓ
Transportation Research Board.
http://trb.org/news/blurb_detail.asp?id=673
[8] Authors, ÒAddressing Security Risks in School Transportation.Ó Transportation Research Board, http://trb.org/publications/trnews/trnews237securityrisks.pdf
[9] Ibid.
[10] Author, ÒDrama in Miami: Special Needs Driver Tells Her Hijacking Story.Ó http://www.stnonline.com/stn/security/stn_articles/Miami_1995.htm
[11] H.R.3162 (Uniting and Strengthening America by Providing Appropriate Tools Required to Intercept and Obstruct Terrorism (USA PATRIOT ACT) Act of 2001)
[12] http://www.ed.gov/policy/elsec/guid/secletter/041006.html
[13]
Paul, Bill, ÒState Responses on School Bus Security Measures.Ó School
Transportation News, April 2004.
[14] Baxter,
Gauthier & Green. ÒAddressing
Security Risks in School Transportation.Ó Transportation Research News,
March-April 2005.
[15] Practical Information on Crisis Planning, U.S. Department of Education.